This course was created in cooperation with the Universities Würzburg and Nürnberg-Erlangen, the Universities of applied sciences Amberg-Weiden and Coburg, as well as the Bavarian virtual university.

The course Elementary Quantitative Risk Assessment offers a step-by-step introduction from the methods of risk classification through risk identification to the mathematical-statistical procedures of risk analysis. The individual steps are made tangible by giving practical examples that illustrate the procedures. Calculations are demonstrated by giving examples which can be further explored using interactive software.

This course consists of 3 modules. Module 1, “Concepts and Terminology in Quantitative Risk Modelling” explains the systematic survey of the respective case of risk exposure and introduces the concepts of risk phenomenon, risk variable and loss and profit types, among others, for a precise description of the risk exposure.

Module 2 “Mathematical and statistical principles of risk modelling” focusses on the concept of statistical distributions. These provide an integral part of the adequate modelling of risk variables in Module 3. These statistical distributions are discussed and fitted onto data examples. Further, the distributions are classified by their tail behaviour, as this proves important for their usage in risk analysis.

Module 3 then concludes the course and combines the previous concepts into the estimation of Value at Risk and Conditional Value at risk. These two key figures are well suited for describing risks and are also already requested by the Basel III banking regulation guideline for risk management.

We wish you a good start into the course.